OBJECTIVES

Our main objective was to develop a growth model for Columbia, Suwannee, and Union counties, which identifies areas that have the highest potential for future urban growth. "Urban" growth includes residential, commercial, and industrial development. Another important objective was to determine how a predicted population of new residents would be distributed throughout the area. These objectives required the development of two computer models.

STUDY AREA

We extended our study area to include all of Columbia county and the adjacent counties of Suwannee and Union. We decided that this was necessary to accurately model growth in the Ichetucknee basin area due to the probability that features in the surrounding areas would contribute to growth in the basin.

METHODOLOGY

MODELING ASSUMPTIONS

In order to model growth in the study area we relied on two basic assumptions:

(1) Future growth follows historic growth. Therefore areas that have experienced growth will most likely continue to grow.   (2) Certain features of the urban and natural landscape attract development while others detract development. For example, major roads typically attract commercial development, and waterfront property typically attracts residential development. On the other hand, close proximity to a jail or landfill would probably deter growth.

These assumptions were used to analyze the study area to predict "status quo" growth trends.

The four main steps in our methodology were:

1. Determine historical growth trends.   2. Evaluate factors that attract and detract growth   3. Develop a growth potential surface   4. Distribute the projected population

This is the Growth Group Main Page   Next Step