Alternative Text Description for Developed in 2040 Sprawl Scenario

TABLE OF CONTENTS

MAP OVERVIEW

This map shows projected developed lands across Florida under a sprawl development scenario for the year 2040. The map visualizes areas expected to be developed if growth continues following 2019 patterns, with new development occurring primarily in undeveloped greenfield sites at existing county-level densities. This represents one of several planning scenarios created to help understand potential future land use patterns in Florida.

GEOGRAPHIC CONTEXT

The map covers the entire state of Florida, extending from the Florida Panhandle in the northwest (including Pensacola and Tallahassee) through the peninsula to the southern tip near Miami. Major cities labeled include Jacksonville on the northeast coast, Orlando in central Florida, Tampa and St. Petersburg on the west-central coast, Cape Coral and Fort Myers in southwest Florida, and Miami at the southern tip. The map also shows portions of neighboring states including southern Georgia and Alabama to the north. The Gulf of America forms the western boundary of the state, while the Atlantic Ocean borders the east coast.

KEY INSIGHTS

Development in the 2040 sprawl scenario is concentrated along Florida's coastlines and near major metropolitan areas. The most significant concentrations of projected development appear in the Jacksonville metropolitan area, the Orlando region in central Florida, the Tampa-St. Petersburg corridor along the west coast, the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area in southwest Florida, and the southeastern coastal areas near Palm Beach and Miami. The Florida Panhandle shows notable development concentration around Pensacola. Large portions of interior Florida, particularly in the north-central region and the Everglades area in the south, show minimal projected development. Coastal areas demonstrate a distinctive linear pattern following shorelines, while inland metropolitan regions show more clustered, spreading patterns radiating from urban cores.

VISUAL ELEMENTS

Developed in 2040 Sprawl Scenario

This layer represents areas projected to transition to developed land use by 2040 under a sprawl growth pattern.

Projected Developed Areas (red point clusters)

Appearance:

Small red dots of varying density creating clusters and scattered patterns across the state.

Distribution:

Widespread throughout Florida with particular emphasis along both the Atlantic and Gulf of America coastlines, concentrated around major metropolitan areas, and present but less dense in interior regions.

Notable locations:

Spatial patterns:

Development follows clear coastal ribbons along both the Atlantic and Gulf of America shorelines. Metropolitan areas show radiating sprawl patterns extending outward from urban cores. Linear corridors appear to connect major cities, particularly visible in the I-4 corridor between Tampa and Orlando. The pattern demonstrates fragmented, dispersed development typical of low-density sprawl rather than compact growth.

SYMBOL GUIDE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

This map represents one of multiple future scenarios developed to assist in land use and conservation planning for Florida. The sprawl scenario assumes continuation of 2019 development patterns and densities, with new growth occurring primarily on previously undeveloped greenfield sites rather than through infill or redevelopment. This scenario can be contrasted with alternative scenarios such as the Conservation 2040 scenario, which assumes higher development densities and protection of additional agricultural and natural lands. The map focuses solely on projected new development areas and does not show existing developed lands from the 2019 baseline. Understanding this projected pattern helps planners, policymakers, and communities anticipate infrastructure needs, environmental impacts, and opportunities for alternative growth strategies.

DATA CONTEXT

Data Source:

This dataset was produced through the Sea Level 2040/2070 project, a collaborative effort of the University of Florida's Center for Landscape Conservation Planning, 1000 Friends of Florida, and the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services. The projection is based on population forecasts from the Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research and models development patterns assuming continuation of 2019 gross development densities at the county level for all new greenfield development. Data source layer name: SL2040_SPRAWL_MAY23.

Definition Query:

No definition query or filter criteria was specified for this view.

Scale Information:

The map displays statewide coverage at a scale appropriate for understanding regional and statewide development patterns. Individual development parcels may not be distinguishable at this scale.

Coordinate System:

NAD_1983_HARN_Florida_GDL_Albers (WKID 3087).

Time Period of Content:

This is a projected scenario for the year 2040, based on 2019 baseline conditions and development patterns. The projection represents potential future conditions rather than current or historical data.

Limitations:

This is a modeled scenario representing one possible future development pattern, not a prediction of actual development. The scenario assumes uniform continuation of 2019 development densities within each county and does not account for potential changes in policy, market conditions, environmental constraints, or development preferences that may occur between 2019 and 2040. The map shows only projected new development areas and does not include the baseline developed areas that existed in 2019. Actual development patterns will depend on numerous factors including local land use decisions, infrastructure investments, economic conditions, and environmental considerations.

Map Coverage:

The map covers the entire state of Florida from the Panhandle through the peninsula, with portions of southern Georgia and Alabama visible in the northern extent for geographic context.

The alternative text description of this map was AI-generated and may contain inaccuracies.