# Alternative Text Description for Gopher Tortoise Probability Index ## TABLE OF CONTENTS - Map Overview - Geographic Context - Key Insights - Visual Elements - Symbol Guide - Additional Information - Data Context ## MAP OVERVIEW This map displays the Gopher Tortoise Probability Index across the state of Florida, showing the likelihood of gopher tortoise presence based on the agreement of four separate habitat suitability models. The index indicates increasing probability as more models identify an area as suitable habitat, ranging from areas where no models predict presence to areas where all four models agree. This tool is designed to assist with project planning by identifying where formal gopher tortoise burrow surveys may be needed before development activities. ## GEOGRAPHIC CONTEXT The map covers the entire state of Florida, extending from the Florida Panhandle in the northwest (near Dothan, Alabama) through the peninsula to Miami and the Florida Keys in the south. Major cities labeled on the map include Jacksonville on the northeastern coast, Orlando in the central region, Tampa and St. Petersburg on the Gulf coast, Cape Coral in southwest Florida, Coral Springs near the southeastern coast, and Miami at the southern tip. The map also shows portions of neighboring states including southern Georgia and Alabama to the north, with cities like Albany and Valdosta marked for geographic reference. The Atlantic Ocean borders the eastern coast, and the Gulf of America borders the western and southern coasts. ## KEY INSIGHTS The probability index reveals extensive potential gopher tortoise habitat throughout Florida with varying levels of model agreement. Higher-probability areas (where multiple models agree) appear concentrated in several distinct regions: the northwestern Panhandle, scattered areas across north-central Florida, concentrated clusters around Jacksonville and northeastern Florida, the central Florida region including areas around Orlando, and extensive coverage throughout southwest Florida including the Cape Coral region. The distribution shows that suitable habitat is widespread but fragmented, with areas of high model agreement (red concentrations) interspersed among areas of moderate agreement (purple, blue, and green). Large gaps in coverage exist in parts of southern Florida, particularly around Miami and the southernmost peninsula, as well as portions of the central and western Panhandle. ## VISUAL ELEMENTS ### Gopher Tortoise Probability Index Layer This thematic layer represents the overlay of four separate gopher tortoise habitat suitability models, with color-coded symbology indicating the level of agreement among models. ### Areas with Agreement by 1 of 4 Models (bright green) **Appearance:** Displayed as small, bright green points scattered across the map. **Distribution:** These areas appear widely distributed throughout Florida, often forming a background pattern across most of the state where habitat potential is minimal but present in at least one model. **Notable locations:** Green points are particularly visible around the periphery of higher-probability areas and in transitional zones between concentrated habitat and gaps in coverage. **Spatial patterns:** The green symbology creates a diffuse, scattered pattern that serves as a baseline distribution, indicating areas where only one of the four models predicted suitable habitat. ### Areas with Agreement by 2 of 4 Models (cyan/light blue) **Appearance:** Displayed as cyan or light blue points distributed across the map. **Distribution:** These areas are widespread throughout Florida, often occurring adjacent to or intermixed with both lower-probability (green) and higher-probability (purple and red) areas. **Notable locations:** Significant concentrations of cyan points appear throughout the central peninsula, in northeastern Florida, and scattered throughout the Panhandle and southwest coastal regions. **Spatial patterns:** The cyan symbology often forms transitional zones between areas of minimal and high probability, creating a mosaic pattern that suggests moderate habitat suitability with some model disagreement. ### Areas with Agreement by 3 of 4 Models (purple) **Appearance:** Displayed as purple or magenta points throughout the map. **Distribution:** Purple areas are notably concentrated in several key regions: the northwestern Panhandle, scattered locations in north-central Florida, concentrated areas around Jacksonville, portions of central Florida, and extensive areas in southwest Florida. **Notable locations:** Major purple concentrations appear in the Jacksonville metropolitan area, throughout the Tampa-St. Petersburg region, in extensive portions of southwest Florida near Cape Coral, and in clusters throughout the Panhandle. **Spatial patterns:** Purple symbology often forms dense clusters and regional concentrations, indicating areas where three of the four models agree on habitat suitability. These areas frequently occur adjacent to red areas (all four models) and often form the core of larger habitat zones. ### Areas with Agreement by All 4 Models (red) **Appearance:** Displayed as red points distributed across the map, representing the highest probability areas. **Distribution:** Red areas appear as distinct concentrations rather than continuous coverage, primarily located in the northwestern Panhandle, scattered throughout north-central and northeastern Florida including around Jacksonville, portions of central Florida, and throughout southwest Florida. **Notable locations:** The most prominent red concentrations occur in the northwestern Panhandle, in and around Jacksonville, scattered through the Orlando region, extensively throughout the Tampa-Cape Coral corridor, and in patches throughout southwest coastal Florida. **Spatial patterns:** Red symbology forms concentrated clusters that represent core habitat areas where all four models agree on high suitability. These areas often occur as focal points within larger zones of purple and blue, suggesting the highest-confidence predictions for gopher tortoise presence. ### Areas with No Model Results (white/gray) **Appearance:** Areas appearing as white or light gray, matching the base map background. **Distribution:** These gaps in coverage are most prominent in the southernmost portion of Florida including the Miami metropolitan area and much of the area south of Lake Okeechobee, portions of the central peninsula, sections of the western and central Panhandle, and offshore areas including the Florida Keys and coastal waters. **Notable locations:** The largest continuous gap appears in the Miami-Dade and southernmost Florida region. Additional notable gaps occur in portions of the central-west coast and scattered areas throughout the interior peninsula. **Spatial patterns:** The absence of model predictions in these areas may reflect unsuitable habitat conditions, data limitations, or areas where none of the four models predicted gopher tortoise presence. ### Overlapping Patterns Throughout the map, the four probability categories create a complex mosaic where different colors intermix and overlap spatially. Higher-probability areas (red and purple) typically appear as concentrated nodes or clusters surrounded by zones of moderate probability (cyan) and lower probability (green). This pattern suggests that gopher tortoise habitat suitability varies at fine spatial scales across Florida, with core high-quality habitat areas embedded within broader landscapes of varying suitability. The fragmented nature of high-probability areas, particularly the red zones, indicates that prime habitat is not continuous but rather exists as discrete patches and corridors throughout the state. ## SYMBOL GUIDE - **Bright green points:** Areas where 1 of 4 models predicts potential gopher tortoise habitat - **Cyan/light blue points:** Areas where 2 of 4 models predict potential gopher tortoise habitat - **Purple/magenta points:** Areas where 3 of 4 models predict potential gopher tortoise habitat - **Red points:** Areas where all 4 models predict potential gopher tortoise habitat (highest probability) - **White/no color:** Areas where none of the models predict potential gopher tortoise habitat or no model results available ## ADDITIONAL INFORMATION The Gopher Tortoise Probability Index is intended as a planning tool to help determine whether a formal gopher tortoise burrow survey should be conducted by an FWC Authorized Gopher Tortoise Agent prior to development activities. It is important to note that this index does not provide definitive proof of gopher tortoise presence or absence. A probability index value of 0 does not guarantee that gopher tortoises are not present in an area, and a value of 4 does not confirm their presence. Inherent inaccuracies in data input layers and the imperfect nature of habitat suitability models mean that only an appropriate on-site survey conducted by a qualified Authorized Agent can determine whether gopher tortoises are actually present and whether a relocation permit is required. Gopher tortoises and their burrows are protected by Florida state law, and permits must be obtained from FWC before disturbing burrows or conducting development activities in areas where tortoises are present. The map displays point-level data showing fine-scale variation in habitat probability across the state. ## DATA CONTEXT **Data Source:** The Gopher Tortoise Occurrence Probability Index was created by overlaying four separate models of gopher tortoise habitat suitability: (1) a rules-based model originally published by Endries et al. (2009) and updated by FWC in 2016; (2) a predictive habitat model published by Crawford et al. (2020) for gopher tortoises throughout their entire range; (3) a predictive habitat model developed by FWC in 2023; and (4) a rules-based model with relaxed assumptions developed by Wildlands Conservation in 2025 using location data from permitted relocation projects in Florida. The index values indicate the level of agreement among these four models. Data source layer: GOPHER_TORTOISE_MODEL_SEP25. **Definition Query:** No definition query or filter criteria was applied; the map displays the complete probability index dataset for all of Florida. **Scale Information:** The map is displayed at a statewide scale covering the entire state of Florida. At this scale, the point-level detail of the probability index is visible, showing fine-scale spatial variation in habitat suitability predictions across diverse landscape types. **Coordinate System:** NAD_1983_HARN_Florida_GDL_Albers (WKID 3087) **Time Period of Content:** The underlying models were developed and published between 2009 and 2025, with the composite probability index layer created in September 2025 (as indicated by the data source layer name suffix "SEP25"). **Limitations:** The probability index is subject to inherent inaccuracies in the underlying data input layers used by each of the four models and reflects the imperfect nature of habitat suitability modeling. The index should not be used as a definitive determination of gopher tortoise presence or absence. Areas with index values of 0 may still contain gopher tortoises, and areas with values of 4 do not guarantee tortoise presence. Only field surveys conducted by FWC Authorized Gopher Tortoise Agents can definitively determine whether tortoises are present at a specific site and whether a relocation permit is required. **Map Coverage:** The map extends across the entire state of Florida from the western Panhandle to the Florida Keys, and includes portions of southern Georgia and Alabama for geographic context. Coverage is most complete across the Florida peninsula and Panhandle, with some areas showing no model results, particularly in the southernmost portions of the state. --- The alternative text description of this map was AI-generated and may contain inaccuracies.