The Florida 2060 population distribution scenario was
developed using relatively straight forward geographic
information systems (GIS) suitability analysis. While the
results of the population distribution scenario are not
guaranteed, they do represent a viable snapshot of Florida
in fifty years.
This population distribution scenario was created using the
Land Use Conflict Identification Strategy (LUCIS). Through
proximity and advanced statistical analysis of GIS datasets
LUCIS identifies lands that are appropriate for future development,
conservation and agricultural production. The GIS datasets
used during analysis originate from various sources. GeoPlan
and the creators of this dataset relied upon the various input
dataset originator's completeness and accuracy.
Generation of the Florida 2060 population distribution
scenario was based on a series of key assumptions.
These assumptions are as follows:
1. The Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR)
moderate population projection from 2005 to 2030 was used as
the basis for determining a trend line extending to 2060. At the time
this study was undertaken, BEBR's projections existed in five year
increments up to 2030. BEBR's middle population projection was
used in the following way. The average annual population change
between 2000 and 2030 was calculated. For each five year increment
following 2030, projected population was calculated by adding five
times the average annual population increase to each preceding
projected population. For example, the BEBR middle range 2030
population for Alachua County was 320,506. The average annual
change population increase between 2000 and 2030 was calculated
to be 3,418. Therefore the 2035 Alachua County population was
projected to be:
(5 [years] x 3,418 [average annual increase]) + 320,506 = 337,596
For the period 2005-2060 the regional starting population was determined
to be 17,872,295 and the ending regional population was
determined to be 35,814,574.
2. It was assumed the existing gross urban density of developed
lands in each county will remain the same as in 2005. Gross urban
density was calculated by taking 2005 population and dividing it
by 2005 existing urban lands resulting in an expression of people
per urban acre for each county. The 2005 gross urban densities
ranged from a high in Dade County of 15.45 people per acre
to a low in Gilchrist County of 0.45 people per acre. The total
acres required to accommodate each county's additional
population was determined based on the calculated 2005
gross urban density.
3. The lands to which the new population was distributed were
determined to be the most suitable using a set of eight criteria of which
proximity to existing urban areas, road density, and absence of wetlands
were most heavily weighted.
4. Existing urban lands were defined as all lands that support existing urban uses.
These include but are not limited to residential, office/commercial, retail, industrial,
roads, urban parks, utilities and utility corridors, golf courses, cemeteries and
airports. Vacant platted residential properties were also included in existing urban
lands for the counties and partial counties with tax parcel data. The rationale for
this assumption was: As new residential areas are developed in counties with
vacant residential parcels, there will continue to be a backlog of vacant residential
parcels always equal in area to the sum of existing vacant residential parcels.
5. Existing conservation lands were defined as all lands with a measure of permanent
protection (both fee simple and less than fee simple). These included areas under
federal and state ownership managed by public agencies including the National
Park Service, US Fish and Wildlife Service, USDA Forest Service and US
Department of Defense. They also included lands managed by state agencies
including the Department of Environmental Protection, Division of Forestry, Florida
Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission and the water management districts.
A few private preserves owned and managed by non-governmental organizations
were included as were lands with conservation easements held by public agencies
and non-governmental organizations. The recently approved Babcock Ranch
acquisition was included in the mask because of its size and its strategic location
in Charlotte and Lee Counties.
6. Open water was defined as areas of the state that are covered by surface waters
the majority of the time. These include lakes greater than 10 acres, rivers,
streams, canals and major wetland systems.
7. An urban development mask was created so that only lands suitable for future
urban development could be considered. Existing urban lands, existing
conservation lands and open water were excluded. The Miccosukee Indian
Reservation lands in western Broward County were also excluded from
consideration for future urban development, because future land use on the
reservation is the decision of the tribal leaders and it would be in appropriate to
assume that future urban development will be allowed on those lands.
8. It was assumed the gross urban density of developed lands in each county will
remain the same as it is today. Gross urban density was calculated by taking 2005
population and dividing it by 2005 existing urban lands (defined above) resulting in
an expression of people per urban acre for each county. Appendix 2 of the
"Florida 2060: A population Distribution Scenario for the State of Florida" contains a
table of the calculated 2005 gross urban densities by county.
9. The projected populations for three different target dates, 2020, 2040, and 2060, were
distributed. To accomplish this, the acres needed to accommodate the new projected
population were calculated for each county based on its existing gross urban density.
Population was allocated to the most suitable lands equal in area to the acres needed
to accommodate the projected population. Once the new 2020 population was
distributed, the results were fed back into the determination of urban suitability for
2040, and subsequently the 2040 population distribution was fed back into the
determination of urban suitability for 2060.
10. Weights were assigned to each criterion used to determine overall urban
development suitability. Appendix 3 of the "Florida 2060: A Population
Distribution Scenario for the State of Florida" displays the rationale for
each criterion and those weights. The weights were chosen based on
the degree to which each criterion was assumed to contribute to the
suitability of any given cell for future urban use.
11. The mapping units used for the 2020 target date were each of Florida s 67
counties. In 2040, however, a number of counties in the central Florida region did
not have sufficient land to accommodate the projected population at the assumed
development density. So, to allocate the 2040 population for those counties, it was
assumed the additional population would spill over into adjacent counties. This
happened to such a degree in central Florida that it was necessary to cluster
fourteen counties together for the 2040 population distribution. In 2060, these
same fourteen counties remained clustered and two more regional clusters proved
necessary, one in south Florida and one in northeast Florida.
In 2040 and 2060 for the clustered counties, population was allocated by first
calculating the additional acreage needed to accommodate the new population
for the target date for each county. Then the acreage needed for all counties in
each cluster was totaled and the population was distributed beginning with
the lands most suitable for urban development in the regional cluster until the
total regional acreage needed was reached. For the counties that remained
unclustered, the new population was allocated county by county as for all
counties in 2020.
This dataset was developed using numerous inputs including, but not limited to,
existing conservation areas, major roads, and parcels. A list of these inputs
and their sources can be found in Appendix 4 of "Florida 2060: A Population
Distribution Scenario for the State of Florida".
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