Alternative Future Land Use Scenarios at the University of Florida GeoPlan Center
  Smart Land Use Analysis: The LUCIS Model (ESRI Press)
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  State of Florida
1000 Friends of Florida
  • Trend Scenario
  Central Florida, ECFRPC, DCA
  • Trend Scenario
  • 3 Alternative Scenarios
  Southwest Florida
Southwest Florida Regional Stewardship Alliance, DCA
  • Trend Scenario
  • 8 Alternative Scenarios
Home About Us Determining Population Projections What is LUCIS? Contact Us

Almost daily on the evening news stories about water shortages, decreased food production, and increased development flash across the television screen.  As the newscaster verbally paints a picture of circumstances around the world, often you can hear in his voice an inflection that asks “How did we get here?”  The most ominous areas suffer from a lack of water, burgeoning populations, and mismanagement of natural resources.  Yet many of these visible problems occur because of bad policy decisions and overall political negligence.  So is there a solution?  Developing alternative future land use scenarios is a proactive approach to land management, resource management, and political and economic responsibility.

With the help of technical tools such as geographic information systems (GIS), regions across the United States are using scenario modeling to paint a picture of future development patterns.  The UF's GeoPlan Center has developed a two step process for creating alternative land use scenarios.

  • The first step employs the Land Use Conflict Identification Strategy (LUCIS)
  • In the second step, planners and designers use the product of LUCIS and a carefully crafted set of assumptions to allocate projected future population.

The methodology illustrates the impact of population increase and paves the way for developing more sustainable patterns of land use.